Is The World Falling Apart? (Pt. 1)
1 of 3 Optimism Posts: Matthew 24:6-8
“You will hear of wars and rumours of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth-pains.”1 -Jesus of Nazareth
I guess I was hoping that it would change too. It was wonderful to see everyone focus on celebrating the coming of a new year. I had hoped, as I looked at the headlines on my cell phone, that our media would share this refreshing habit, letting go of the fearful and horrific, if only for a few days, and tell us about all of the good things in the world. It is hardly necessary to tell you that I was disappointed in my quest. The news headlines and trending YouTube videos continued to channel Jesus’ words of “wars and rumors of wars.” And though it is understandable that our society in general, with less influence from worship or scripture, would let such rumors set the tone of their lives, there are too many Christians, myself included, who do this as well.
After all, Jesus taught us to live worry-free. He said we should give up primary responsibility for meeting our basic needs to refocus on seeking first “his kingdom and his righteousness” and dare to trust that all the things we habitually worry about will be provided.2 Jesus only mentioned the fear-mongering in the above passage to remind us that they are not the real story. They are signs that something fresh and new is on its way. So, for your sake and mine, I offer this, the first of three posts, as antidotes for the ongoing malaise of fear and cynicism surrounding us and an encouragement to live this new year from a wider and wonderfully hopeful understanding of the events of our world.
We begin, very simply, with something sorely lacking from the opinions foisted upon us daily; data. Today’s post claims that the world is not falling apart. In fact, if we look at the data we find not only is the world not falling apart, but things are getting better. And not only are things getting better, but they are getting better at a faster pace than ever before. My first proof is a 30,000-foot view of the planet’s financial well-being. This perspective, given what we are regularly fed, is quite surprising.
The world’s gross domestic product (GDP) is growing in ways Karl Marx could not have imagined.
From 1500 to 1820, (Marx was born in 1818) the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced and sold on markets around the world (or GDP),3 grew by only 0.3% per year from $430 billion to $1.2 trillion.4 Then,
For the next 80 years, after the introduction of free markets and international trade and while Karl Marx was writing about class injustice, GDP growth sped up to 1.3% a year. By 1900, 17 years after Marx’s death, real improvements in businesses and its workers (which is what GDP signifies) had grown from $1.2 trillion to $3.4 trillion.
From 1900 to 2018, global GDP has grown by slightly more than 3% a year to $121 trillion.5
One of the serious issues that those influenced by Marx struggle with, even today, is that overall economic growth continues. His original idea assumed that the Industrial Revolution would worsen most people’s lives. “Wars and rumors of wars,” from this perspective, are a good thing because it is through a revolution that the few who are benefitting will be overthrown and a way of life that is just and fair for everyone will develop. The data does not support this view, even for individuals.
Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the time of Jesus was $800 a year.
About 1,800 years later, during the life of Thomas Jefferson, GDP per capita grew by 40% to $1,140.
From 1820 to 2008 GDP per capita has grown by more than 10 times to $13,172.6
This is expected to continue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects, in a middle-of-the-road estimate, that the GDP will continue to grow by 2% annually. This means that by 2100 the GDP will have grown from 2018’s $121 trillion to $600 trillion.7
Of course, this doesn’t discount the “wars and rumors of wars.” We still have many areas in which we, as a planet, must improve. But we need to acknowledge the good news with the bad. Something new is developing. The events we see are the “birth-bangs.” This amazing economic growth is just the tip of the iceberg. We will look at two other factors in the next couple of weeks.
In the meantime, Happy New Year! -Randy
For more detailed information on the Gross Domestic Product click here.
Maddison, Angus, The World Economy: A Millenial Perspective, (Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 2001), Table B-18.
World Bank, “Global Cross Domestic Product, Purchasing Power Parity” chart.
Bailey, Ronald and Marion L. Tupy, Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know, (Canada: Cato Institute 2020), p. 33.
Rob Dellink et al., “Long-Term Economic Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Global Enviromental Change 42 (2017): 206.
Great job of reminding us that media makes its money by reporting on the most disturbing happenings in this world but God is in control and His promise to supply our basic needs is true, just like every one of His promises. And not only needs but lavish ‘extras’ like a beautiful sunset, an irresistible flower with is scent, the cuddles of a baby , the soft fur of a cat or dog, friends & family with laughter & hugs.